Canelo vs. Munguia – Breakdown And Predictions

May 4, 2024
2 weeks
Canelo vs. Munguia - Breakdown And Predictions

Canelo Alvarez defends his Undisputed Super Middleweight Title on Saturday in an all-Mexican clash. 

Alvarez is the heavy favorite, having only lost twice in his career. Defeats to Floyd Mayweather and Dmitry Bivol are against some of the best fighters the sport has ever seen. Canelo is a four-weight world champion coming off a win against Jermell Charlo. While Alvarez eased to a unanimous decision win, he fought a junior middleweight, moving up two weight classes.


Munguia is undefeated, with a 43-0 record. He has 34 KOs, beating John Ryder in his last fight. That was his first fight under his new trainer, Freddie Roach, as the offensive style paid off. He dropped Ryder four times before stopping him in round nine. Munguia is known for his aggressive style, as he will look to pile the pressure early on.

Stopping Alvarez is unlikely since it has never happened, meaning he may have to outwork the champion. Canelo has noticeably been slowing down in the latter parts of fights recently, namely against Ryder, which could play into Munguia’s hands. However, that plays into Canelo’s style. Munguia could get countered coming in and get stopped. Munguia’s fights with Gabriel Rosado and Sergiy Derevyanchenko showed he could exchange and handle getting hit. However, Alvarez is an elite-level fighter who will hurt his opponent once he senses a weakness. 

Alvarez has shown weakness against fighters who have good footwork, IQ, and a solid jab. Outside of Mayweather and Bivol, Erislandy Lara and Austin Trout troubled Alvarez with those fundamentals. While the Mexican got wins over the two, they were controversial, especially the Lara win, which was via a split decision. Munguia does not fight in that style, which could be his downfall. Here are some predictions from those around boxing. 


“You know what I think Munguia is going to put up some really good rounds. Munguia is not going to go run around and try to survive. Munguia is gonna put up a good fight. I was taking one of my fighters to spar with Munguia for his last fight, and Munguia is a very strong fighter man..[But] I think Canelo beats him. But man, he [already won]…He got the big fight,” Robert Garcia

“Well look, I’ll tell you one thing, um after Cinco De Mayo Weekend we’ll have two faces of boxing: That’s Munguia and Ryan,” Oscar De La Hoya

“Munguia reminds me of a young Canelo trying to make his mark on the goat. You feel me, so it’s going to be a tough fight for him to succeed in. But I mean, bro, if it’s in him, he can make that a difficult fight for Canelo. Canelo is going to want to really fight at his pace.. but sometimes that youth…can put an older fighter in a bad place just by his activity,” Antonio Tarver

“That’s a really hard one cuz Canelo is a very tough fighter. Munguia is a very game fighter. Physically, he’s stronger than him, right? You know, and he’s younger, um I think Canelo edges him out and what I mean by that is I think it’s a close fight. I think he wins a close fight,” Vergil Ortiz 

“I think that fight is going to be good, and I think Canelo’s going to win. [And] I know he’s going to win. I think he’s going to counter-punch Munguia a lot of times, um, but like I said, you can’t underestimate any fighter. You can’t underestimate Munguia. He’s a Mexican; he’s a warrior,” Andy Ruiz Jr.


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