UFC 317 – Beneil Dariush vs Renato Moicano: Preview & Betting Tips

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Two of the UFC lightweight division’s most experienced and versatile veterans, Beneil Dariush and Renato Moicano, collide this weekend at UFC 317. 

Dariush (22-6-1) returns after a long time out of the ring after a tough 2023 in which he suffered consecutive first-round losses to Charles Oliveira and Arman Tsarukyan. Once on an eight-fight win streak, the 36-year-old now finds himself at a career crossroads. A win here would restore his standing in the top 10, while another loss could mark the end of his career at an elite level.

Moicano (20-6-1), meanwhile, saw his impressive four-fight run snapped when he was submitted by Islam Makhachev in January on short notice. That bout was a free hit at a title shot, and while the result was expected, the experience may pay dividends now for the Brazilian.

Tale of the Tape

Beneil Dariush – Odds 1.96 (Unibet)

Record: 22-6-1

Age: 36

Height: 5ft10

Reach: 72”

Weight: Lightweight

Stance: Southpaw

Renato Moicano – Odds 1.84 (Unibet)

Record: 20-6-1

Age: 36

Height: 5ft11

Reach: 72”

Weight: Lightweight

Stance: Orthodox

Beneil Dariush vs Renato Moicano: Analysis

Dariush is a calculated pressure fighter with powerful overhands, crafty scrambling ability, and dangerous submissions, particularly from top control. He’s tough, battle-tested, and able to transition seamlessly between striking and grappling, making him one of the most well-rounded lightweights.

Moicano is more aggressive early, using front kicks, elbows, and knees to close distance before dragging opponents to the mat or jumping on their neck. He thrives in back control and has nine career submissions, most For this reason, I am backing Renato Moicano purely because of the form he has been in over the past couple of years.

Dariush will possibly look to wrestle to neutralise Moicano’s threat on the feet. If it hits the mat, both men are capable of sweeps and submissions, so this one could be very interesting from minute one.

Dariush vs Moicano: Prediction & Betting Tips

While Dariush is the more proven all-rounder, he’s shown signs of wear, and Moicano’s pace and unpredictability could break through. If the Brazilian avoids the big shot early and gets his grappling going, he could control the proceedings.

The issue with Dariush is we haven’t seen him fight since the back end of 2023, and he got knocked out twice in that calendar year. Additionally, he has not tasted victory since October 2022, almost three years ago.

For this reason, I am backing Renato Moicano purely because of the form he has been in over the past couple of years. Although he is entering this bout with a recent loss, this can be ignored due to the circumstances; it was a short-notice chance to win the world lightweight title against the pound-for-pound number one fighter Islam Makhachev. If anything, he should learn from that experience.

Renato Moicano moneyline is the pick at odds of 1.84 (Unibet). Bettors could also take a punt on Moicano to win inside the distance, though I personally don’t want to get too greedy on this one.

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