UFC 302 Betting Preview

June 1, 2024

1 month

Dustin Poirier has always been a good soldier for the UFC. For years, the American title hopeful fought the toughest competition the lightweight division had to offer. Despite this, when Poirier took a step down in opponent quality last time out, he was an underdog to Benoît Saint Denis at UFC 299.

While Poirier made several questionable decisions, like going for a guillotine choke that he’s never successfully executed in competition, he still pulled off a second-round knockout win. Poirier’s victory ended up earning him a surprise championship fight against Islam Makhachev.

An opportunity was available after former champion Charles Oliviera pulled out due to injury. Whether or not Poirer should be fighting for the title is questionable. MMAfighting latest news shows Poirier has lost two of his last four fights.

Makhachev has defended his championship belt twice since taking the belt from Oliviera. However, Makhachev has yet to fight someone in his weight class. Both of his defenses came against former featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski, who bumped up a weight class to take the fight.

This will be the third opportunity for Poirier, a former interim title holder, to claim the undisputed title. Poirier is a fighter who prefers to lean on striking, while Makhachev is a fantastic wrestler. Makhachev will have a solid blueprint to follow, as he could try to submit Poirier like his mentor, Khabib Numagomedov, did during a title fight a few years back. It’s nice to see Poirier pursuing gold again, but this isn’t the matchup to get him that win.

Bets to consider: Makhachev by submission (-125), Under 2.5 rounds (-190)

Can Costa Crack Strickland?

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Sean Strickland is one of the great, consistent performers in MMA. While Strickland isn’t always a safe bet, you know what to expect from the former middleweight champion. Strickland likes to fight out of the Philly shell and lean on his jab and pressure to carry the fight.

What to make of Strickland’s opponent, Paulo Costa, is hard to say. Costa is a former middleweight title challenger. Since Costa lost the fight to Israel Adesanya, MMA latest updates show he is no longer known for fighting.

Costa is now known more for posting jokes on social media. But anyone taking Costa’s eccentric personality as a weakness should think again. Costa fought well against Robert Whittaker during his last outing, proving that Costa is still a dangerous fighter who must be taken seriously.

Bets to Consider: Strickland by decision, +150.

Holland Needs to Turn Career Around

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Kevin Holland failed to produce sparks against Michael Page at 299. Holland was caught up in Page’s unorthodox style and didn’t do enough to avoid taking a decision loss. Holland has now taken consecutive decision losses and lost four of his past six fights.

While Holland is only 31 years old, he has considerable mileage on his tires. Holland has fought 37 times professionally and is known for being a bit of a wild card himself. Holland’s opponent this weekend, Michal Oleksiejczuk, enters the fight coming off a loss of his own. Oleksiejczuk has been submitted five times in his career but has considerable power in his hands. Oleksiejczuk has 14 knockout victories on his resume.

Holland is a hard fighter to bet because he does many things that could cause him to get into trouble. However, Oleksiejczuk isn’t the fighter who has the gumption to punish Holland for his extravagance.

Bets to consider: Double chance: Holland by KO or submission, -105

Should Almeida be a Heavyweight?

Jailton Almeida is more naturally a light heavyweight fighter. However, the Brazilian grappling specialist has preferred to stay in the heavyweight class during his time in the UFC. After Almeida won his first seven fights in the promotion, he learned a difficult lesson about being a heavyweight.

It can be a quick route to a short night if you don’t take an opponent’s power seriously. Almeida, as he preps for Alexandr Romanov, must figure out how to be more effective when he lands takedowns. Almeida took down Curtis Blaydes in his last fight.

However, when Almeida gets top position, he hasn’t mastered strikes on the ground to make opponents give up. Almeida took his first UFC loss to Blaydes last time out in the second round when he tried to hang onto a takedown instead of advancing position.

Blaydes reigned down thunderous hammerfirsts to win the fight. Almeida was supposed to get Alexander Volkov in this fight but was assigned Romanov after Volkov pulled out. Romanov is a solid wrestler with nine submission victories. This should be a fun war on the ground, according to the best MMA news sites.

Expect a stoppage by either ground-and-pound or submission for either man.

Bets to consider: Under 1.5 rounds, Alternate winning method: KO, TKO, DQ +200

Brown Wants to Recapture Magic

According to MMA news sites, Randy Brown has only won more than two fights in a row once in his career since entering the UFC. Brown will join a welterweight battle with Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos, having won two straight.

Dos Santos is on a three-fight unbeaten streak, coming off a disappointing draw with Rinat Fakretdinov. But dos Santos has had difficulty finishing fights recently. He gassed out badly during the first fight of his current run against Saint Denis.

Brown is a more consistent performer and should get the job done here.

Bets to consider: Fight to not go the distance +108, Randy Brown -177

Here are some quick picks on the fights on the card not mentioned above: