Tony Ferguson vs Canelo Álvarez

Stats-based fight prediction · Factor analysis · Win probability

PREDICTIONConfidence: MEDIUM

Tony Ferguson

26-11-0

🇲🇽

Canelo Álvarez

68-3-2

45%10% Draw45%

Ferguson

Álvarez

Predicted outcome: Decision

Our stats-based model gives Canelo Álvarez a 45% edge over Tony Ferguson in this matchup. The prediction is driven by finishing power as the dominant factor. The most likely outcome is a Decision in what should be a competitive fight.

Factor Analysis

Win RateWeight: ★★★

Tony Ferguson wins 70% vs Canelo Álvarez at 93%

Ferguson

8.4

Álvarez

10.0

Finishing PowerWeight: ★★★

50% stoppage rate vs 0%

Ferguson

6.0

Álvarez

0.0

Physical AttributesWeight: ★★

Height 183cm / 175cm, Reach ?cm / ?cm

Ferguson

6.6

Álvarez

3.4

DurabilityWeight: ★★

70% survival rate vs 96%

Ferguson

7.7

Álvarez

10.0

Age & PrimeWeight: ★★

42 years old vs 36 years old

Ferguson

3.0

Álvarez

7.1

ExperienceWeight: ★★

37 bouts vs 73 bouts

Ferguson

6.1

Álvarez

10.0

Ask about this fight

AI · fact-anchored

Grounded in both fighters' records, measurements and recent results. We don't fabricate — if we don't have the data, we'll say so.

Disclaimer: This prediction is generated algorithmically based on publicly available statistics and should not be used as gambling advice. Fight outcomes depend on many factors that statistics alone cannot capture, including game plans, training camps, and in-ring adjustments. Always gamble responsibly.