Islam Makhachev vs Ilia Topuria

Stats-based fight prediction · Factor analysis · Win probability

PREDICTIONConfidence: HIGH

🇷🇺

Islam Makhachev

28-1-0

Ilia Topuria

17-0-0

46%10% Draw44%

Makhachev

Topuria

Predicted outcome: Decision

Our stats-based model gives Islam Makhachev a 46% edge over Ilia Topuria in this matchup. The prediction is driven by finishing power as the dominant factor. The most likely outcome is a Decision in what should be a competitive fight.

Factor Analysis

Win RateWeight: ★★★

Islam Makhachev wins 97% vs Ilia Topuria at 100%

Makhachev

10.0

Topuria

10.0

Finishing PowerWeight: ★★★

18% stoppage rate vs 41%

Makhachev

2.1

Topuria

4.9

Physical AttributesWeight: ★★

Height 178cm / 170cm, Reach ?cm / 175cm

Makhachev

6.6

Topuria

3.4

DurabilityWeight: ★★

97% survival rate vs 100%

Makhachev

10.0

Topuria

10.0

ExperienceWeight: ★★

29 bouts vs 17 bouts

Makhachev

10.0

Topuria

6.7

Age & PrimeWeight: ★★

35 years old vs 29 years old

Makhachev

8.5

Topuria

8.0

Ask about this fight

AI · fact-anchored

Grounded in both fighters' records, measurements and recent results. We don't fabricate — if we don't have the data, we'll say so.

Disclaimer: This prediction is generated algorithmically based on publicly available statistics and should not be used as gambling advice. Fight outcomes depend on many factors that statistics alone cannot capture, including game plans, training camps, and in-ring adjustments. Always gamble responsibly.