Canelo Álvarez vs David Benavidez

Stats-based fight prediction · Factor analysis · Win probability

PREDICTIONConfidence: MEDIUM

🇲🇽

Canelo Álvarez

68-3-2

David Benavidez

31-0-0

39%10% Draw51%

Álvarez

Benavidez

Predicted outcome: KO/TKO

Our stats-based model gives David Benavidez a 51% edge over Canelo Álvarez in this matchup. The prediction is driven by finishing power as the dominant factor. The most likely outcome is a KO/TKO in what should be a competitive fight.

Factor Analysis

Win RateWeight: ★★★

Canelo Álvarez wins 93% vs David Benavidez at 100%

Álvarez

10.0

Benavidez

10.0

Finishing PowerWeight: ★★★

0% stoppage rate vs 81%

Álvarez

0.0

Benavidez

9.7

Physical AttributesWeight: ★★

Height 175cm / 185cm, Reach ?cm / ?cm

Álvarez

3.0

Benavidez

7.0

DurabilityWeight: ★★

96% survival rate vs 100%

Álvarez

10.0

Benavidez

10.0

ExperienceWeight: ★★

73 bouts vs 31 bouts

Álvarez

10.0

Benavidez

5.4

Age & PrimeWeight: ★★

36 years old vs 29 years old

Álvarez

7.2

Benavidez

8.0

Ask about this fight

AI · fact-anchored

Grounded in both fighters' records, measurements and recent results. We don't fabricate — if we don't have the data, we'll say so.

Disclaimer: This prediction is generated algorithmically based on publicly available statistics and should not be used as gambling advice. Fight outcomes depend on many factors that statistics alone cannot capture, including game plans, training camps, and in-ring adjustments. Always gamble responsibly.