Sergey Kovalev vs Eddie Alvarez

Stats-based fight prediction · Factor analysis · Win probability

PREDICTIONConfidence: MEDIUM

Sergey Kovalev

42-5-1

Eddie Alvarez

30-8-0

44%10% Draw46%

Kovalev

Alvarez

Predicted outcome: TKO / Late Stoppage

Our stats-based model gives Eddie Alvarez a 46% edge over Sergey Kovalev in this matchup. The prediction is driven by finishing power as the dominant factor. The most likely outcome is a TKO / Late Stoppage in what should be a competitive fight.

Factor Analysis

Win RateWeight: ★★★

Sergey Kovalev wins 88% vs Eddie Alvarez at 79%

Kovalev

10.0

Alvarez

9.5

Finishing PowerWeight: ★★★

0% stoppage rate vs 57%

Kovalev

0.0

Alvarez

6.8

Physical AttributesWeight: ★★

Height 183cm / 175cm, Reach ?cm / ?cm

Kovalev

6.6

Alvarez

3.4

DurabilityWeight: ★★

90% survival rate vs 79%

Kovalev

9.9

Alvarez

8.7

ExperienceWeight: ★★

48 bouts vs 38 bouts

Kovalev

10.0

Alvarez

8.3

Age & PrimeWeight: ★★

43 years old vs 42 years old

Kovalev

3.0

Alvarez

3.0

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AI · fact-anchored

Grounded in both fighters' records, measurements and recent results. We don't fabricate — if we don't have the data, we'll say so.

Disclaimer: This prediction is generated algorithmically based on publicly available statistics and should not be used as gambling advice. Fight outcomes depend on many factors that statistics alone cannot capture, including game plans, training camps, and in-ring adjustments. Always gamble responsibly.