BREAKINGRyan Garcia vs Errol Spence — stats-based predictionBREAKINGRyan Garcia vs Errol Spence — stats-based prediction

Ryan Garcia vs Errol Spence

Stats-based fight prediction · Factor analysis · Win probability

PREDICTIONConfidence: MEDIUM

Ryan Garcia

28-2-0
VS

Errol Spence

29-1-0
46%10% Draw44%
Garcia
Spence
Predicted outcome: Decision

Our stats-based model gives Ryan Garcia a 46% edge over Errol Spence in this matchup. The prediction is driven by physical attributes as the dominant factor. The most likely outcome is a Decision in what should be a competitive fight.

Factor Analysis

Win RateWeight: ★★★

Ryan Garcia wins 93% vs Errol Spence at 97%

Garcia
10.0
Spence
10.0
Finishing PowerWeight: ★★★

0% stoppage rate vs 0%

Garcia
0.0
Spence
0.0
Physical AttributesWeight: ★★

Height 178cm / 175cm, Reach ?cm / ?cm

Garcia
5.6
Spence
4.4
DurabilityWeight: ★★

93% survival rate vs 97%

Garcia
10.0
Spence
10.0
Age & PrimeWeight: ★★

28 years old vs 36 years old

Garcia
8.0
Spence
6.9
ExperienceWeight: ★★

30 bouts vs 30 bouts

Garcia
10.0
Spence
10.0
Disclaimer: This prediction is generated algorithmically based on publicly available statistics and should not be used as gambling advice. Fight outcomes depend on many factors that statistics alone cannot capture, including game plans, training camps, and in-ring adjustments. Always gamble responsibly.