Joel Álvarez vs Natan Schulte

Stats-based fight prediction · Factor analysis · Win probability

PREDICTIONConfidence: HIGH

🇪🇸

Joel Álvarez

23-3-0

Natan Schulte

26-6-1

48%10% Draw42%

Álvarez

Schulte

Predicted outcome: Decision

Our stats-based model gives Joel Álvarez a 48% edge over Natan Schulte in this matchup. The prediction is driven by physical attributes as the dominant factor. The most likely outcome is a Decision in what should be a competitive fight.

Factor Analysis

Win RateWeight: ★★★

Joel Álvarez wins 88% vs Natan Schulte at 79%

Álvarez

10.0

Schulte

9.5

Finishing PowerWeight: ★★★

22% stoppage rate vs 15%

Álvarez

2.6

Schulte

1.8

Physical AttributesWeight: ★★

Height 191cm / 178cm, Reach ?cm / 175cm

Álvarez

7.0

Schulte

3.0

DurabilityWeight: ★★

88% survival rate vs 82%

Álvarez

9.7

Schulte

9.0

ExperienceWeight: ★★

26 bouts vs 33 bouts

Álvarez

8.3

Schulte

10.0

Age & PrimeWeight: ★★

33 years old vs 35 years old

Álvarez

9.5

Schulte

8.5

Ask about this fight

AI · fact-anchored

Grounded in both fighters' records, measurements and recent results. We don't fabricate — if we don't have the data, we'll say so.

Disclaimer: This prediction is generated algorithmically based on publicly available statistics and should not be used as gambling advice. Fight outcomes depend on many factors that statistics alone cannot capture, including game plans, training camps, and in-ring adjustments. Always gamble responsibly.