BREAKINGJake Paul vs Tony Ferguson — stats-based predictionBREAKINGJake Paul vs Tony Ferguson — stats-based prediction

Jake Paul vs Tony Ferguson

Stats-based fight prediction · Factor analysis · Win probability

PREDICTIONConfidence: MEDIUM

Jake Paul

14-2-0
VS

Tony Ferguson

26-11-0
43%10% Draw47%
Paul
Ferguson
Predicted outcome: TKO / Late Stoppage

Our stats-based model gives Tony Ferguson a 47% edge over Jake Paul in this matchup. The prediction is driven by finishing power as the dominant factor. The most likely outcome is a TKO / Late Stoppage in what should be a competitive fight.

Factor Analysis

Win RateWeight: ★★★

Jake Paul wins 88% vs Tony Ferguson at 70%

Paul
10.0
Ferguson
8.4
Finishing PowerWeight: ★★★

0% stoppage rate vs 50%

Paul
0.0
Ferguson
6.0
DurabilityWeight: ★★

88% survival rate vs 70%

Paul
9.6
Ferguson
7.7
Physical AttributesWeight: ★★

Height 183cm / 183cm, Reach ?cm / ?cm

Paul
5.0
Ferguson
5.0
Age & PrimeWeight: ★★

29 years old vs 42 years old

Paul
8.0
Ferguson
3.0
ExperienceWeight: ★★

16 bouts vs 37 bouts

Paul
5.5
Ferguson
10.0
Disclaimer: This prediction is generated algorithmically based on publicly available statistics and should not be used as gambling advice. Fight outcomes depend on many factors that statistics alone cannot capture, including game plans, training camps, and in-ring adjustments. Always gamble responsibly.