Jake Paul vs Israel Adesanya

Stats-based fight prediction · Factor analysis · Win probability

PREDICTIONConfidence: MEDIUM

Jake Paul

14-2-0

🇳🇿

Israel Adesanya

24-6-0

38%10% Draw52%

Paul

Adesanya

Predicted outcome: KO/TKO

Our stats-based model gives Israel Adesanya a 52% edge over Jake Paul in this matchup. The prediction is driven by finishing power as the dominant factor. The most likely outcome is a KO/TKO in what should be a competitive fight.

Factor Analysis

Win RateWeight: ★★★

Jake Paul wins 88% vs Israel Adesanya at 80%

Paul

10.0

Adesanya

9.6

Finishing PowerWeight: ★★★

0% stoppage rate vs 67%

Paul

0.0

Adesanya

8.0

Physical AttributesWeight: ★★

Height 183cm / 193cm, Reach ?cm / ?cm

Paul

3.0

Adesanya

7.0

DurabilityWeight: ★★

88% survival rate vs 80%

Paul

9.6

Adesanya

8.8

ExperienceWeight: ★★

16 bouts vs 30 bouts

Paul

6.3

Adesanya

10.0

Age & PrimeWeight: ★★

29 years old vs 37 years old

Paul

8.0

Adesanya

6.2

Ask about this fight

AI · fact-anchored

Grounded in both fighters' records, measurements and recent results. We don't fabricate — if we don't have the data, we'll say so.

Disclaimer: This prediction is generated algorithmically based on publicly available statistics and should not be used as gambling advice. Fight outcomes depend on many factors that statistics alone cannot capture, including game plans, training camps, and in-ring adjustments. Always gamble responsibly.