BREAKINGIsrael Adesanya vs Conor McGregor — stats-based predictionBREAKINGIsrael Adesanya vs Conor McGregor — stats-based prediction

Israel Adesanya vs Conor McGregor

Stats-based fight prediction · Factor analysis · Win probability

PREDICTIONConfidence: MEDIUM
🇳🇿

Israel Adesanya

24-6-0
VS
🇮🇪

Conor McGregor

22-6-0
47%10% Draw43%
Adesanya
McGregor
Predicted outcome: KO/TKO

Our stats-based model gives Israel Adesanya a 47% edge over Conor McGregor in this matchup. The prediction is driven by physical attributes as the dominant factor. The most likely outcome is a KO/TKO in what should be a competitive fight.

Factor Analysis

Win RateWeight: ★★★

Israel Adesanya wins 80% vs Conor McGregor at 79%

Adesanya
9.6
McGregor
9.4
Finishing PowerWeight: ★★★

67% stoppage rate vs 86%

Adesanya
8.0
McGregor
10.0
Physical AttributesWeight: ★★

Height 193cm / 174cm, Reach ?cm / ?cm

Adesanya
7.0
McGregor
3.0
DurabilityWeight: ★★

80% survival rate vs 79%

Adesanya
8.8
McGregor
8.6
Age & PrimeWeight: ★★

37 years old vs 38 years old

Adesanya
6.3
McGregor
5.2
ExperienceWeight: ★★

30 bouts vs 28 bouts

Adesanya
10.0
McGregor
9.5
Disclaimer: This prediction is generated algorithmically based on publicly available statistics and should not be used as gambling advice. Fight outcomes depend on many factors that statistics alone cannot capture, including game plans, training camps, and in-ring adjustments. Always gamble responsibly.