Conor McGregor vs Eddie Alvarez

Stats-based fight prediction · Factor analysis · Win probability

PREDICTIONConfidence: MEDIUM

🇮🇪

Conor McGregor

22-6-0

Eddie Alvarez

30-8-0

47%10% Draw43%

McGregor

Alvarez

Predicted outcome: KO/TKO

Our stats-based model gives Conor McGregor a 47% edge over Eddie Alvarez in this matchup. The prediction is driven by finishing power as the dominant factor. The most likely outcome is a KO/TKO in what should be a competitive fight.

Factor Analysis

Win RateWeight: ★★★

Conor McGregor wins 79% vs Eddie Alvarez at 79%

McGregor

9.4

Alvarez

9.5

Finishing PowerWeight: ★★★

86% stoppage rate vs 57%

McGregor

10.0

Alvarez

6.8

Physical AttributesWeight: ★★

Height 174cm / 175cm, Reach ?cm / ?cm

McGregor

4.8

Alvarez

5.2

DurabilityWeight: ★★

79% survival rate vs 79%

McGregor

8.6

Alvarez

8.7

Age & PrimeWeight: ★★

38 years old vs 42 years old

McGregor

5.2

Alvarez

3.0

ExperienceWeight: ★★

28 bouts vs 38 bouts

McGregor

7.9

Alvarez

10.0

Ask about this fight

AI · fact-anchored

Grounded in both fighters' records, measurements and recent results. We don't fabricate — if we don't have the data, we'll say so.

Disclaimer: This prediction is generated algorithmically based on publicly available statistics and should not be used as gambling advice. Fight outcomes depend on many factors that statistics alone cannot capture, including game plans, training camps, and in-ring adjustments. Always gamble responsibly.