BREAKINGCanelo Álvarez vs Terence Crawford — stats-based predictionBREAKINGCanelo Álvarez vs Terence Crawford — stats-based prediction

Canelo Álvarez vs Terence Crawford

Stats-based fight prediction · Factor analysis · Win probability

PREDICTIONConfidence: MEDIUM
🇲🇽

Canelo Álvarez

68-3-2
VS

Terence Crawford

42-0-0
48%10% Draw42%
Álvarez
Crawford
Predicted outcome: Decision

Our stats-based model gives Canelo Álvarez a 48% edge over Terence Crawford in this matchup. The prediction is driven by experience as the dominant factor. The most likely outcome is a Decision in what should be a competitive fight.

Factor Analysis

Win RateWeight: ★★★

Canelo Álvarez wins 93% vs Terence Crawford at 100%

Álvarez
10.0
Crawford
10.0
Finishing PowerWeight: ★★★

0% stoppage rate vs 0%

Álvarez
0.0
Crawford
0.0
Physical AttributesWeight: ★★

Height 175cm / 173cm, Reach ?cm / ?cm

Álvarez
5.4
Crawford
4.6
DurabilityWeight: ★★

96% survival rate vs 100%

Álvarez
10.0
Crawford
10.0
ExperienceWeight: ★★

73 bouts vs 42 bouts

Álvarez
10.0
Crawford
6.6
Age & PrimeWeight: ★★

36 years old vs 39 years old

Álvarez
7.2
Crawford
4.4
Disclaimer: This prediction is generated algorithmically based on publicly available statistics and should not be used as gambling advice. Fight outcomes depend on many factors that statistics alone cannot capture, including game plans, training camps, and in-ring adjustments. Always gamble responsibly.