Moicano Gets Best Bet Call For UFC Vegas 123

Renato Moicano enters as a slight underdog for UFC Vegas 123 but carries the best betting value for Saturday's main event against Tom Nolan at META APEX, according to MMA Mania's Tim Edwards.

Moicano draws the APEX headliner as compensation for missing a scheduled bout with Brian Ortega in September. He last fought in April, submitting training partner Chris Duncan with a second-round rear naked choke. That bounce-back followed a lopsided loss to Beneil Dariush in 2025. Nolan arrives on a four-fight winning streak since his debut TKO loss to Nikolas Motta, most recently outpointing Fares Ziam in June to reach 5-1 in the promotion.

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Why Moicano's Grappling Could Decide UFC Vegas 123

Edwards flags Nolan's defensive vulnerabilities as the key opening for Moicano. Nolan has absorbed knockdowns and heavy damage in multiple UFC appearances, showing toughness to recover but potentially lacking the margin against sharper opposition. Moicano's significant striking defense sits at 59 percent, just outside the lightweight top ten, and his grappling carries a clear edge. Edwards writes that Moicano possesses superior fight IQ on the mat and an instinct for snatching submissions rather than stalling in position.

The co-main event pairs Jacobe Smith against Randy Brown on short notice, while the main card also features Ode' Osbourne vs. Cody Durden and a pair of Santos — Yana vs. Luana — in the women's flyweight division. The prelims stack Contender Series graduates and fighters working through skids, including Nick Klein vs. Joseph Kropschot and Zachary Reese vs. Mickey Gall.

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Moicano opened at plus-102 with Nolan closing as a minus-122 favourite. First bell is set for Saturday evening in Las Vegas.

Reported via:

• MMA Mania — UFC Vegas 123 best betting props, parlays and picks | Moicano vs. Nolan