Eddie Alvarez breaks down Justin Gaethje's path to upset Ilia Topuria

Former UFC lightweight champion Eddie Alvarez says Justin Gaethje needs to time his shots between exchanges if he wants to land clean against featherweight king Ilia Topuria.

Alvarez told his podcast audience that Topuria reads incoming attacks too well for Gaethje to find success as the aggressor. "I think his best shot is catching him in between Ilia's exchanges," Alvarez said, per Sherdog. "Ilia has too sharp of eyes for Justin to lead and catch him. Justin has to be brave and go in between, when Ilia goes then Justin has to go."

Why Gaethje's usual pressure approach could backfire

The blueprint amounts to abandoning Gaethje's typical walk-forward style. Alvarez believes Topuria's counter timing is sharp enough to exploit the openings Gaethje creates when he leads with leg kicks or looping hooks. Instead, Gaethje would need to react to Topuria's entries and fire back during the Georgian's moments of commitment.

Topuria has stopped his last three opponents inside the distance, including a fifth-round knockout of Alexander Volkanovski and a third-round finish of Max Holloway. Gaethje has not fought since losing his lightweight title shot to Max Holloway at UFC 300 last April. The Topuria-Gaethje matchup has been floated as a potential summer bout, though the UFC has not announced a date or venue.

Source: sherdog.com