Bia Mesquita submission prop leads UFC Vegas 119 betting picks
Brazilian jiu-jitsu specialist Bia Mesquita is the betting focus heading into UFC Vegas 119, according to MMA Mania's weekly lock column.
The site is backing Mesquita to finish Melissa Mullins by submission at -110 odds on Saturday's prelims, per their latest betting breakdown. Mesquita carries a perfect finish rate across six professional wins, four by submission, and has tapped her last two opponents despite neither having been submitted before entering the cage with her. Mullins has also never been submitted as a professional.
Why the Mesquita submission prop appeals to bettors
The case for the prop rests on Mesquita's elite grappling credentials and recent form. MMA Mania noted that once Mesquita establishes position, she advances methodically and forces mistakes from opponents who lack the technical ability to survive her ground game. The outlet suggested the UFC should already be matching her against Top 10 competition rather than what they termed developmental fights, given her age and skill level.
Mullins has missed weight twice during her run and has not looked particularly impressive at UFC level, according to the report. The main risk cited is that Mullins fights ultra-defensively to avoid submissions, or that Mesquita stops her by strikes instead.
In the main event, Manel Kape faces Kyoji Horiguchi in a rematch nine years in the making. UFC Vegas 119 takes place Saturday at the Meta Apex in Las Vegas.
Original reporting:
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