Tony Ferguson vs Jorge Masvidal

Stats-based fight prediction · Factor analysis · Win probability

PREDICTIONConfidence: MEDIUM

Tony Ferguson

26-11-0

Jorge Masvidal

35-17-0

46%10% Draw44%

Ferguson

Masvidal

Predicted outcome: TKO / Late Stoppage

Our stats-based model gives Tony Ferguson a 46% edge over Jorge Masvidal in this matchup. The prediction is driven by experience as the dominant factor. The most likely outcome is a TKO / Late Stoppage in what should be a competitive fight.

Factor Analysis

Win RateWeight: ★★★

Tony Ferguson wins 70% vs Jorge Masvidal at 67%

Ferguson

8.4

Masvidal

8.1

Finishing PowerWeight: ★★★

50% stoppage rate vs 46%

Ferguson

6.0

Masvidal

5.5

Physical AttributesWeight: ★★

Height 183cm / 180cm, Reach ?cm / ?cm

Ferguson

5.6

Masvidal

4.4

DurabilityWeight: ★★

70% survival rate vs 67%

Ferguson

7.7

Masvidal

7.4

ExperienceWeight: ★★

37 bouts vs 52 bouts

Ferguson

7.7

Masvidal

10.0

Age & PrimeWeight: ★★

42 years old vs 42 years old

Ferguson

3.0

Masvidal

3.0

Ask about this fight

AI · fact-anchored

Grounded in both fighters' records, measurements and recent results. We don't fabricate — if we don't have the data, we'll say so.

Disclaimer: This prediction is generated algorithmically based on publicly available statistics and should not be used as gambling advice. Fight outcomes depend on many factors that statistics alone cannot capture, including game plans, training camps, and in-ring adjustments. Always gamble responsibly.