Tom Aspinall vs Conor McGregor

Stats-based fight prediction · Factor analysis · Win probability

PREDICTIONConfidence: MEDIUM

🇬🇧

Tom Aspinall

15-2-0

🇮🇪

Conor McGregor

22-6-0

48%10% Draw42%

Aspinall

McGregor

Predicted outcome: KO/TKO

Our stats-based model gives Tom Aspinall a 48% edge over Conor McGregor in this matchup. The prediction is driven by physical attributes as the dominant factor. The most likely outcome is a KO/TKO in what should be a competitive fight.

Factor Analysis

Win RateWeight: ★★★

Tom Aspinall wins 88% vs Conor McGregor at 79%

Aspinall

10.0

McGregor

9.4

Finishing PowerWeight: ★★★

80% stoppage rate vs 86%

Aspinall

9.6

McGregor

10.0

Physical AttributesWeight: ★★

Height 196cm / 174cm, Reach ?cm / ?cm

Aspinall

7.0

McGregor

3.0

DurabilityWeight: ★★

88% survival rate vs 79%

Aspinall

9.7

McGregor

8.6

Age & PrimeWeight: ★★

33 years old vs 38 years old

Aspinall

9.9

McGregor

5.1

ExperienceWeight: ★★

17 bouts vs 28 bouts

Aspinall

6.9

McGregor

10.0

Ask about this fight

AI · fact-anchored

Grounded in both fighters' records, measurements and recent results. We don't fabricate — if we don't have the data, we'll say so.

Disclaimer: This prediction is generated algorithmically based on publicly available statistics and should not be used as gambling advice. Fight outcomes depend on many factors that statistics alone cannot capture, including game plans, training camps, and in-ring adjustments. Always gamble responsibly.