BREAKINGSean Strickland vs Tony Ferguson — stats-based predictionBREAKINGSean Strickland vs Tony Ferguson — stats-based prediction

Sean Strickland vs Tony Ferguson

Stats-based fight prediction · Factor analysis · Win probability

PREDICTIONConfidence: MEDIUM

Sean Strickland

30-7-0
VS

Tony Ferguson

26-11-0
48%10% Draw42%
Strickland
Ferguson
Predicted outcome: Decision

Our stats-based model gives Sean Strickland a 48% edge over Tony Ferguson in this matchup. The prediction is driven by age & prime as the dominant factor. The most likely outcome is a Decision in what should be a competitive fight.

Factor Analysis

Win RateWeight: ★★★

Sean Strickland wins 81% vs Tony Ferguson at 70%

Strickland
9.7
Ferguson
8.4
Finishing PowerWeight: ★★★

40% stoppage rate vs 50%

Strickland
4.8
Ferguson
6.0
DurabilityWeight: ★★

81% survival rate vs 70%

Strickland
8.9
Ferguson
7.7
Physical AttributesWeight: ★★

Height 185cm / 183cm, Reach ?cm / ?cm

Strickland
5.4
Ferguson
4.6
Age & PrimeWeight: ★★

35 years old vs 42 years old

Strickland
7.9
Ferguson
3.0
ExperienceWeight: ★★

37 bouts vs 37 bouts

Strickland
10.0
Ferguson
10.0
Disclaimer: This prediction is generated algorithmically based on publicly available statistics and should not be used as gambling advice. Fight outcomes depend on many factors that statistics alone cannot capture, including game plans, training camps, and in-ring adjustments. Always gamble responsibly.