Ryan Garcia vs Keith Thurman

Stats-based fight prediction · Factor analysis · Win probability

PREDICTIONConfidence: MEDIUM

Ryan Garcia

28-2-0

Keith Thurman

34-2-0

47%10% Draw43%

Garcia

Thurman

Predicted outcome: Decision

Our stats-based model gives Ryan Garcia a 47% edge over Keith Thurman in this matchup. The prediction is driven by physical attributes as the dominant factor. The most likely outcome is a Decision in what should be a competitive fight.

Factor Analysis

Win RateWeight: ★★★

Ryan Garcia wins 93% vs Keith Thurman at 94%

Garcia

10.0

Thurman

10.0

Finishing PowerWeight: ★★★

0% stoppage rate vs 0%

Garcia

0.0

Thurman

0.0

Physical AttributesWeight: ★★

Height 178cm / 171cm, Reach ?cm / ?cm

Garcia

6.4

Thurman

3.6

DurabilityWeight: ★★

93% survival rate vs 94%

Garcia

10.0

Thurman

10.0

Age & PrimeWeight: ★★

28 years old vs 37 years old

Garcia

8.0

Thurman

5.5

ExperienceWeight: ★★

30 bouts vs 36 bouts

Garcia

8.7

Thurman

10.0

Ask about this fight

AI · fact-anchored

Grounded in both fighters' records, measurements and recent results. We don't fabricate — if we don't have the data, we'll say so.

Disclaimer: This prediction is generated algorithmically based on publicly available statistics and should not be used as gambling advice. Fight outcomes depend on many factors that statistics alone cannot capture, including game plans, training camps, and in-ring adjustments. Always gamble responsibly.