Ryan Garcia vs Benson Henderson — stats-based predictionRyan Garcia vs Benson Henderson — stats-based prediction

Ryan Garcia vs Benson Henderson

Stats-based fight prediction · Factor analysis · Win probability

PREDICTIONConfidence: MEDIUM

Ryan Garcia

28-2-0
VS

Benson Henderson

30-12-0
48%10% Draw42%
Garcia
Henderson
Predicted outcome: Decision

Our stats-based model gives Ryan Garcia a 48% edge over Benson Henderson in this matchup. The prediction is driven by age & prime as the dominant factor. The most likely outcome is a Decision in what should be a competitive fight.

Factor Analysis

Win RateWeight: ★★★

Ryan Garcia wins 93% vs Benson Henderson at 71%

Garcia
10.0
Henderson
8.6
Finishing PowerWeight: ★★★

0% stoppage rate vs 17%

Garcia
0.0
Henderson
2.0
DurabilityWeight: ★★

93% survival rate vs 71%

Garcia
10.0
Henderson
7.9
Physical AttributesWeight: ★★

Height 178cm / 175cm, Reach ?cm / ?cm

Garcia
5.6
Henderson
4.4
Age & PrimeWeight: ★★

28 years old vs 43 years old

Garcia
8.0
Henderson
3.0
ExperienceWeight: ★★

30 bouts vs 42 bouts

Garcia
7.7
Henderson
10.0

Ask about this fight

AI · fact-anchored

Grounded in both fighters' records, measurements and recent results. We don't fabricate — if we don't have the data, we'll say so.

Disclaimer: This prediction is generated algorithmically based on publicly available statistics and should not be used as gambling advice. Fight outcomes depend on many factors that statistics alone cannot capture, including game plans, training camps, and in-ring adjustments. Always gamble responsibly.