Renzo Gracie vs Nick Diaz

Stats-based fight prediction · Factor analysis · Win probability

PREDICTIONConfidence: MEDIUM

🇧🇷

Renzo Gracie

13-7-1

Nick Diaz

27-10-0

37%9% Draw54%

Gracie

Diaz

Predicted outcome: TKO / Late Stoppage

Our stats-based model gives Nick Diaz a 54% edge over Renzo Gracie in this matchup. The prediction is driven by finishing power as the dominant factor. The most likely outcome is a TKO / Late Stoppage in what should be a competitive fight.

Factor Analysis

Win RateWeight: ★★★

Renzo Gracie wins 62% vs Nick Diaz at 73%

Gracie

7.4

Diaz

8.8

Finishing PowerWeight: ★★★

15% stoppage rate vs 52%

Gracie

1.8

Diaz

6.2

Physical AttributesWeight: ★★

Height 178cm / 185cm, Reach ?cm / ?cm

Gracie

3.6

Diaz

6.4

DurabilityWeight: ★★

67% survival rate vs 73%

Gracie

7.3

Diaz

8.0

ExperienceWeight: ★★

21 bouts vs 37 bouts

Gracie

6.5

Diaz

10.0

Age & PrimeWeight: ★★

59 years old vs 43 years old

Gracie

3.0

Diaz

3.0

Ask about this fight

AI · fact-anchored

Grounded in both fighters' records, measurements and recent results. We don't fabricate — if we don't have the data, we'll say so.

Disclaimer: This prediction is generated algorithmically based on publicly available statistics and should not be used as gambling advice. Fight outcomes depend on many factors that statistics alone cannot capture, including game plans, training camps, and in-ring adjustments. Always gamble responsibly.