Nick Diaz vs Tony Ferguson

Stats-based fight prediction · Factor analysis · Win probability

PREDICTIONConfidence: MEDIUM

Nick Diaz

27-10-0

Tony Ferguson

26-11-0

46%10% Draw44%

Diaz

Ferguson

Predicted outcome: TKO / Late Stoppage

Our stats-based model gives Nick Diaz a 46% edge over Tony Ferguson in this matchup. The prediction is driven by physical attributes as the dominant factor. The most likely outcome is a TKO / Late Stoppage in what should be a competitive fight.

Factor Analysis

Win RateWeight: ★★★

Nick Diaz wins 73% vs Tony Ferguson at 70%

Diaz

8.8

Ferguson

8.4

Finishing PowerWeight: ★★★

52% stoppage rate vs 50%

Diaz

6.2

Ferguson

6.0

Physical AttributesWeight: ★★

Height 185cm / 183cm, Reach ?cm / ?cm

Diaz

5.4

Ferguson

4.6

DurabilityWeight: ★★

73% survival rate vs 70%

Diaz

8.0

Ferguson

7.7

ExperienceWeight: ★★

37 bouts vs 37 bouts

Diaz

10.0

Ferguson

10.0

Age & PrimeWeight: ★★

43 years old vs 42 years old

Diaz

3.0

Ferguson

3.0

Ask about this fight

AI · fact-anchored

Grounded in both fighters' records, measurements and recent results. We don't fabricate — if we don't have the data, we'll say so.

Disclaimer: This prediction is generated algorithmically based on publicly available statistics and should not be used as gambling advice. Fight outcomes depend on many factors that statistics alone cannot capture, including game plans, training camps, and in-ring adjustments. Always gamble responsibly.