Khamzat Chimaev vs Tony Ferguson — stats-based predictionKhamzat Chimaev vs Tony Ferguson — stats-based prediction

Khamzat Chimaev vs Tony Ferguson

Stats-based fight prediction · Factor analysis · Win probability

PREDICTIONConfidence: MEDIUM

Khamzat Chimaev

15-0-0
VS

Tony Ferguson

26-11-0
48%10% Draw42%
Chimaev
Ferguson
Predicted outcome: Decision

Our stats-based model gives Khamzat Chimaev a 48% edge over Tony Ferguson in this matchup. The prediction is driven by age & prime as the dominant factor. The most likely outcome is a Decision in what should be a competitive fight.

Factor Analysis

Win RateWeight: ★★★

Khamzat Chimaev wins 100% vs Tony Ferguson at 70%

Chimaev
10.0
Ferguson
8.4
Finishing PowerWeight: ★★★

40% stoppage rate vs 50%

Chimaev
4.8
Ferguson
6.0
DurabilityWeight: ★★

100% survival rate vs 70%

Chimaev
10.0
Ferguson
7.7
Physical AttributesWeight: ★★

Height 188cm / 183cm, Reach ?cm / ?cm

Chimaev
6.0
Ferguson
4.0
Age & PrimeWeight: ★★

32 years old vs 42 years old

Chimaev
8.0
Ferguson
3.0
ExperienceWeight: ★★

15 bouts vs 37 bouts

Chimaev
5.2
Ferguson
10.0

Ask about this fight

AI · fact-anchored

Grounded in both fighters' records, measurements and recent results. We don't fabricate — if we don't have the data, we'll say so.

Disclaimer: This prediction is generated algorithmically based on publicly available statistics and should not be used as gambling advice. Fight outcomes depend on many factors that statistics alone cannot capture, including game plans, training camps, and in-ring adjustments. Always gamble responsibly.