Khamzat Chimaev vs Paulo Costa

Stats-based fight prediction · Factor analysis · Win probability

PREDICTIONConfidence: MEDIUM

Khamzat Chimaev

15-0-0

🇧🇷

Paulo Costa

16-4-0

43%10% Draw47%

Chimaev

Costa

Predicted outcome: KO/TKO

Our stats-based model gives Paulo Costa a 47% edge over Khamzat Chimaev in this matchup. The prediction is driven by finishing power as the dominant factor. The most likely outcome is a KO/TKO in what should be a competitive fight.

Factor Analysis

Win RateWeight: ★★★

Khamzat Chimaev wins 100% vs Paulo Costa at 80%

Chimaev

10.0

Costa

9.6

Finishing PowerWeight: ★★★

40% stoppage rate vs 75%

Chimaev

4.8

Costa

9.0

Physical AttributesWeight: ★★

Height 188cm / 185cm, Reach ?cm / ?cm

Chimaev

5.6

Costa

4.4

DurabilityWeight: ★★

100% survival rate vs 80%

Chimaev

10.0

Costa

8.8

ExperienceWeight: ★★

15 bouts vs 20 bouts

Chimaev

8.0

Costa

10.0

Age & PrimeWeight: ★★

32 years old vs 35 years old

Chimaev

8.0

Costa

8.0

Ask about this fight

AI · fact-anchored

Grounded in both fighters' records, measurements and recent results. We don't fabricate — if we don't have the data, we'll say so.

Disclaimer: This prediction is generated algorithmically based on publicly available statistics and should not be used as gambling advice. Fight outcomes depend on many factors that statistics alone cannot capture, including game plans, training camps, and in-ring adjustments. Always gamble responsibly.