Keith Thurman vs Ryan Garcia — stats-based predictionKeith Thurman vs Ryan Garcia — stats-based prediction

Keith Thurman vs Ryan Garcia

Stats-based fight prediction · Factor analysis · Win probability

PREDICTIONConfidence: MEDIUM

Keith Thurman

34-2-0
VS

Ryan Garcia

28-2-0
43%10% Draw47%
Thurman
Garcia
Predicted outcome: Decision

Our stats-based model gives Ryan Garcia a 47% edge over Keith Thurman in this matchup. The prediction is driven by physical attributes as the dominant factor. The most likely outcome is a Decision in what should be a competitive fight.

Factor Analysis

Win RateWeight: ★★★

Keith Thurman wins 94% vs Ryan Garcia at 93%

Thurman
10.0
Garcia
10.0
Finishing PowerWeight: ★★★

0% stoppage rate vs 0%

Thurman
0.0
Garcia
0.0
Physical AttributesWeight: ★★

Height 171cm / 178cm, Reach ?cm / ?cm

Thurman
3.6
Garcia
6.4
DurabilityWeight: ★★

94% survival rate vs 93%

Thurman
10.0
Garcia
10.0
Age & PrimeWeight: ★★

37 years old vs 28 years old

Thurman
5.5
Garcia
8.0
ExperienceWeight: ★★

36 bouts vs 30 bouts

Thurman
10.0
Garcia
8.7

Ask about this fight

AI · fact-anchored

Grounded in both fighters' records, measurements and recent results. We don't fabricate — if we don't have the data, we'll say so.

Disclaimer: This prediction is generated algorithmically based on publicly available statistics and should not be used as gambling advice. Fight outcomes depend on many factors that statistics alone cannot capture, including game plans, training camps, and in-ring adjustments. Always gamble responsibly.