Keith Thurman vs Manny Pacquiao

Stats-based fight prediction · Factor analysis · Win probability

PREDICTIONConfidence: MEDIUM

Keith Thurman

34-2-0

🇵🇭

Manny Pacquiao

73-8-3

45%10% Draw45%

Thurman

Pacquiao

Predicted outcome: Decision

Our stats-based model gives Manny Pacquiao a 45% edge over Keith Thurman in this matchup. The prediction is driven by experience as the dominant factor. The most likely outcome is a Decision in what should be a competitive fight.

Factor Analysis

Win RateWeight: ★★★

Keith Thurman wins 94% vs Manny Pacquiao at 87%

Thurman

10.0

Pacquiao

10.0

Finishing PowerWeight: ★★★

0% stoppage rate vs 0%

Thurman

0.0

Pacquiao

0.0

Physical AttributesWeight: ★★

Height 171cm / 166cm, Reach ?cm / ?cm

Thurman

6.0

Pacquiao

4.0

DurabilityWeight: ★★

94% survival rate vs 90%

Thurman

10.0

Pacquiao

10.0

ExperienceWeight: ★★

36 bouts vs 84 bouts

Thurman

5.4

Pacquiao

10.0

Age & PrimeWeight: ★★

37 years old vs 47 years old

Thurman

5.5

Pacquiao

3.0

Ask about this fight

AI · fact-anchored

Grounded in both fighters' records, measurements and recent results. We don't fabricate — if we don't have the data, we'll say so.

Disclaimer: This prediction is generated algorithmically based on publicly available statistics and should not be used as gambling advice. Fight outcomes depend on many factors that statistics alone cannot capture, including game plans, training camps, and in-ring adjustments. Always gamble responsibly.