BREAKINGKamaru Usman vs Khamzat Chimaev — stats-based predictionBREAKINGKamaru Usman vs Khamzat Chimaev — stats-based prediction

Kamaru Usman vs Khamzat Chimaev

Stats-based fight prediction · Factor analysis · Win probability

PREDICTIONConfidence: MEDIUM

Kamaru Usman

21-4-0
VS

Khamzat Chimaev

15-0-0
43%10% Draw47%
Usman
Chimaev
Predicted outcome: Decision

Our stats-based model gives Khamzat Chimaev a 47% edge over Kamaru Usman in this matchup. The prediction is driven by age & prime as the dominant factor. The most likely outcome is a Decision in what should be a competitive fight.

Factor Analysis

Win RateWeight: ★★★

Kamaru Usman wins 84% vs Khamzat Chimaev at 100%

Usman
10.0
Chimaev
10.0
Finishing PowerWeight: ★★★

43% stoppage rate vs 40%

Usman
5.1
Chimaev
4.8
Physical AttributesWeight: ★★

Height 183cm / 188cm, Reach ?cm / ?cm

Usman
4.0
Chimaev
6.0
DurabilityWeight: ★★

84% survival rate vs 100%

Usman
9.2
Chimaev
10.0
Age & PrimeWeight: ★★

39 years old vs 32 years old

Usman
4.1
Chimaev
8.0
ExperienceWeight: ★★

25 bouts vs 15 bouts

Usman
10.0
Chimaev
6.8
Disclaimer: This prediction is generated algorithmically based on publicly available statistics and should not be used as gambling advice. Fight outcomes depend on many factors that statistics alone cannot capture, including game plans, training camps, and in-ring adjustments. Always gamble responsibly.