Justin Gaethje vs Song Yadong

Stats-based fight prediction · Factor analysis · Win probability

PREDICTIONConfidence: MEDIUM

Justin Gaethje

27-5-0

Song Yadong

22-8-1

48%10% Draw42%

Gaethje

Yadong

Predicted outcome: KO/TKO

Our stats-based model gives Justin Gaethje a 48% edge over Song Yadong in this matchup. The prediction is driven by finishing power as the dominant factor. The most likely outcome is a KO/TKO in what should be a competitive fight.

Factor Analysis

Win RateWeight: ★★★

Justin Gaethje wins 84% vs Song Yadong at 71%

Gaethje

10.0

Yadong

8.5

Finishing PowerWeight: ★★★

74% stoppage rate vs 41%

Gaethje

8.9

Yadong

4.9

DurabilityWeight: ★★

84% survival rate vs 74%

Gaethje

9.3

Yadong

8.2

Physical AttributesWeight: ★★

Height 180cm / ?cm, Reach ?cm / ?cm

Gaethje

5.0

Yadong

5.0

Age & PrimeWeight: ★★

38 years old vs 29 years old

Gaethje

5.4

Yadong

8.0

ExperienceWeight: ★★

32 bouts vs 31 bouts

Gaethje

10.0

Yadong

9.8

Ask about this fight

AI · fact-anchored

Grounded in both fighters' records, measurements and recent results. We don't fabricate — if we don't have the data, we'll say so.

Disclaimer: This prediction is generated algorithmically based on publicly available statistics and should not be used as gambling advice. Fight outcomes depend on many factors that statistics alone cannot capture, including game plans, training camps, and in-ring adjustments. Always gamble responsibly.