Justin Gaethje vs Sean O'Malley — stats-based predictionJustin Gaethje vs Sean O'Malley — stats-based prediction

Justin Gaethje vs Sean O'Malley

Stats-based fight prediction · Factor analysis · Win probability

PREDICTIONConfidence: MEDIUM

Justin Gaethje

27-5-0
VS

Sean O'Malley

18-3-0
46%10% Draw44%
Gaethje
O'Malley
Predicted outcome: KO/TKO

Our stats-based model gives Justin Gaethje a 46% edge over Sean O'Malley in this matchup. The prediction is driven by experience as the dominant factor. The most likely outcome is a KO/TKO in what should be a competitive fight.

Factor Analysis

Win RateWeight: ★★★

Justin Gaethje wins 84% vs Sean O'Malley at 86%

Gaethje
10.0
O'Malley
10.0
Finishing PowerWeight: ★★★

74% stoppage rate vs 67%

Gaethje
8.9
O'Malley
8.0
DurabilityWeight: ★★

84% survival rate vs 86%

Gaethje
9.3
O'Malley
9.4
Physical AttributesWeight: ★★

Height 180cm / 180cm, Reach ?cm / ?cm

Gaethje
5.0
O'Malley
5.0
ExperienceWeight: ★★

32 bouts vs 21 bouts

Gaethje
10.0
O'Malley
7.3
Age & PrimeWeight: ★★

38 years old vs 32 years old

Gaethje
5.4
O'Malley
8.0

Ask about this fight

AI · fact-anchored

Grounded in both fighters' records, measurements and recent results. We don't fabricate — if we don't have the data, we'll say so.

Disclaimer: This prediction is generated algorithmically based on publicly available statistics and should not be used as gambling advice. Fight outcomes depend on many factors that statistics alone cannot capture, including game plans, training camps, and in-ring adjustments. Always gamble responsibly.