Justin Gaethje vs Junior dos Santos

Stats-based fight prediction · Factor analysis · Win probability

PREDICTIONConfidence: MEDIUM

Justin Gaethje

27-5-0

🇧🇷

Junior dos Santos

23-10-0

46%10% Draw44%

Gaethje

Santos

Predicted outcome: KO/TKO

Our stats-based model gives Justin Gaethje a 46% edge over Junior dos Santos in this matchup. The prediction is driven by physical attributes as the dominant factor. The most likely outcome is a KO/TKO in what should be a competitive fight.

Factor Analysis

Win RateWeight: ★★★

Justin Gaethje wins 84% vs Junior dos Santos at 70%

Gaethje

10.0

Santos

8.4

Finishing PowerWeight: ★★★

74% stoppage rate vs 70%

Gaethje

8.9

Santos

8.3

Physical AttributesWeight: ★★

Height 180cm / 190cm, Reach ?cm / ?cm

Gaethje

3.0

Santos

7.0

DurabilityWeight: ★★

84% survival rate vs 70%

Gaethje

9.3

Santos

7.7

Age & PrimeWeight: ★★

38 years old vs 42 years old

Gaethje

5.4

Santos

3.0

ExperienceWeight: ★★

32 bouts vs 33 bouts

Gaethje

9.8

Santos

10.0

Ask about this fight

AI · fact-anchored

Grounded in both fighters' records, measurements and recent results. We don't fabricate — if we don't have the data, we'll say so.

Disclaimer: This prediction is generated algorithmically based on publicly available statistics and should not be used as gambling advice. Fight outcomes depend on many factors that statistics alone cannot capture, including game plans, training camps, and in-ring adjustments. Always gamble responsibly.