Justin Gaethje vs Ezzard Charles

Stats-based fight prediction · Factor analysis · Win probability

PREDICTIONConfidence: MEDIUM

Justin Gaethje

27-5-0

Ezzard Charles

121-25-1

49%10% Draw41%

Gaethje

Charles

Predicted outcome: KO/TKO

Our stats-based model gives Justin Gaethje a 49% edge over Ezzard Charles in this matchup. The prediction is driven by finishing power as the dominant factor. The most likely outcome is a KO/TKO in what should be a competitive fight.

Factor Analysis

Win RateWeight: ★★★

Justin Gaethje wins 84% vs Ezzard Charles at 82%

Gaethje

10.0

Charles

9.9

Finishing PowerWeight: ★★★

74% stoppage rate vs 0%

Gaethje

8.9

Charles

0.0

Physical AttributesWeight: ★★

Height 180cm / 183cm, Reach ?cm / ?cm

Gaethje

4.4

Charles

5.6

DurabilityWeight: ★★

84% survival rate vs 83%

Gaethje

9.3

Charles

9.1

ExperienceWeight: ★★

32 bouts vs 147 bouts

Gaethje

3.7

Charles

10.0

Age & PrimeWeight: ★★

37 years old vs 105 years old

Gaethje

5.6

Charles

3.0

Disclaimer: This prediction is generated algorithmically based on publicly available statistics and should not be used as gambling advice. Fight outcomes depend on many factors that statistics alone cannot capture, including game plans, training camps, and in-ring adjustments. Always gamble responsibly.