Justin Gaethje vs Conor McGregor

Stats-based fight prediction · Factor analysis · Win probability

PREDICTIONConfidence: MEDIUM

Justin Gaethje

27-5-0

🇮🇪

Conor McGregor

22-6-0

47%10% Draw43%

Gaethje

McGregor

Predicted outcome: KO/TKO

Our stats-based model gives Justin Gaethje a 47% edge over Conor McGregor in this matchup. The prediction is driven by physical attributes as the dominant factor. The most likely outcome is a KO/TKO in what should be a competitive fight.

Factor Analysis

Win RateWeight: ★★★

Justin Gaethje wins 84% vs Conor McGregor at 79%

Gaethje

10.0

McGregor

9.4

Finishing PowerWeight: ★★★

74% stoppage rate vs 86%

Gaethje

8.9

McGregor

10.0

Physical AttributesWeight: ★★

Height 180cm / 174cm, Reach ?cm / ?cm

Gaethje

6.2

McGregor

3.8

DurabilityWeight: ★★

84% survival rate vs 79%

Gaethje

9.3

McGregor

8.6

ExperienceWeight: ★★

32 bouts vs 28 bouts

Gaethje

10.0

McGregor

9.0

Age & PrimeWeight: ★★

38 years old vs 38 years old

Gaethje

5.5

McGregor

5.1

Ask about this fight

AI · fact-anchored

Grounded in both fighters' records, measurements and recent results. We don't fabricate — if we don't have the data, we'll say so.

Disclaimer: This prediction is generated algorithmically based on publicly available statistics and should not be used as gambling advice. Fight outcomes depend on many factors that statistics alone cannot capture, including game plans, training camps, and in-ring adjustments. Always gamble responsibly.