Justin Gaethje vs Chael Sonnen

Stats-based fight prediction · Factor analysis · Win probability

PREDICTIONConfidence: MEDIUM

Justin Gaethje

27-5-0

Chael Sonnen

31-17-1

50%10% Draw40%

Gaethje

Sonnen

Predicted outcome: KO/TKO

Our stats-based model gives Justin Gaethje a 50% edge over Chael Sonnen in this matchup. The prediction is driven by finishing power as the dominant factor. The most likely outcome is a KO/TKO in what should be a competitive fight.

Factor Analysis

Win RateWeight: ★★★

Justin Gaethje wins 84% vs Chael Sonnen at 63%

Gaethje

10.0

Sonnen

7.6

Finishing PowerWeight: ★★★

74% stoppage rate vs 26%

Gaethje

8.9

Sonnen

3.1

DurabilityWeight: ★★

84% survival rate vs 65%

Gaethje

9.3

Sonnen

7.2

Physical AttributesWeight: ★★

Height 180cm / 185cm, Reach ?cm / ?cm

Gaethje

4.0

Sonnen

6.0

ExperienceWeight: ★★

32 bouts vs 49 bouts

Gaethje

7.2

Sonnen

10.0

Age & PrimeWeight: ★★

38 years old vs 49 years old

Gaethje

5.4

Sonnen

3.0

Ask about this fight

AI · fact-anchored

Grounded in both fighters' records, measurements and recent results. We don't fabricate — if we don't have the data, we'll say so.

Disclaimer: This prediction is generated algorithmically based on publicly available statistics and should not be used as gambling advice. Fight outcomes depend on many factors that statistics alone cannot capture, including game plans, training camps, and in-ring adjustments. Always gamble responsibly.