Justin Gaethje vs Arman Tsarukyan

Stats-based fight prediction · Factor analysis · Win probability

PREDICTIONConfidence: MEDIUM

Justin Gaethje

27-5-0

Arman Tsarukyan

23-3-0

49%10% Draw41%

Gaethje

Tsarukyan

Predicted outcome: KO/TKO

Our stats-based model gives Justin Gaethje a 49% edge over Arman Tsarukyan in this matchup. The prediction is driven by finishing power as the dominant factor. The most likely outcome is a KO/TKO in what should be a competitive fight.

Factor Analysis

Win RateWeight: ★★★

Justin Gaethje wins 84% vs Arman Tsarukyan at 88%

Gaethje

10.0

Tsarukyan

10.0

Finishing PowerWeight: ★★★

74% stoppage rate vs 39%

Gaethje

8.9

Tsarukyan

4.7

Physical AttributesWeight: ★★

Height 180cm / 170cm, Reach ?cm / ?cm

Gaethje

7.0

Tsarukyan

3.0

DurabilityWeight: ★★

84% survival rate vs 88%

Gaethje

9.3

Tsarukyan

9.7

Age & PrimeWeight: ★★

38 years old vs 30 years old

Gaethje

5.3

Tsarukyan

8.0

ExperienceWeight: ★★

32 bouts vs 26 bouts

Gaethje

10.0

Tsarukyan

8.5

Ask about this fight

AI · fact-anchored

Grounded in both fighters' records, measurements and recent results. We don't fabricate — if we don't have the data, we'll say so.

Disclaimer: This prediction is generated algorithmically based on publicly available statistics and should not be used as gambling advice. Fight outcomes depend on many factors that statistics alone cannot capture, including game plans, training camps, and in-ring adjustments. Always gamble responsibly.