BREAKINGJorge Masvidal vs Justin Gaethje — stats-based predictionBREAKINGJorge Masvidal vs Justin Gaethje — stats-based prediction

Jorge Masvidal vs Justin Gaethje

Stats-based fight prediction · Factor analysis · Win probability

PREDICTIONConfidence: MEDIUM

Jorge Masvidal

35-17-0
VS

Justin Gaethje

27-5-0
41%10% Draw49%
Masvidal
Gaethje
Predicted outcome: KO/TKO

Our stats-based model gives Justin Gaethje a 49% edge over Jorge Masvidal in this matchup. The prediction is driven by finishing power as the dominant factor. The most likely outcome is a KO/TKO in what should be a competitive fight.

Factor Analysis

Win RateWeight: ★★★

Jorge Masvidal wins 67% vs Justin Gaethje at 84%

Masvidal
8.1
Gaethje
10.0
Finishing PowerWeight: ★★★

46% stoppage rate vs 74%

Masvidal
5.5
Gaethje
8.9
DurabilityWeight: ★★

67% survival rate vs 84%

Masvidal
7.4
Gaethje
9.3
Physical AttributesWeight: ★★

Height 180cm / 180cm, Reach ?cm / ?cm

Masvidal
5.0
Gaethje
5.0
ExperienceWeight: ★★

52 bouts vs 32 bouts

Masvidal
10.0
Gaethje
6.9
Age & PrimeWeight: ★★

41 years old vs 37 years old

Masvidal
3.0
Gaethje
5.6
Disclaimer: This prediction is generated algorithmically based on publicly available statistics and should not be used as gambling advice. Fight outcomes depend on many factors that statistics alone cannot capture, including game plans, training camps, and in-ring adjustments. Always gamble responsibly.