Jessie Vargas vs Eddie Alvarez

Stats-based fight prediction · Factor analysis · Win probability

PREDICTIONConfidence: MEDIUM

Jessie Vargas

35-4-2

Eddie Alvarez

30-8-0

44%10% Draw46%

Vargas

Alvarez

Predicted outcome: TKO / Late Stoppage

Our stats-based model gives Eddie Alvarez a 46% edge over Jessie Vargas in this matchup. The prediction is driven by finishing power as the dominant factor. The most likely outcome is a TKO / Late Stoppage in what should be a competitive fight.

Factor Analysis

Win RateWeight: ★★★

Jessie Vargas wins 85% vs Eddie Alvarez at 79%

Vargas

10.0

Alvarez

9.5

Finishing PowerWeight: ★★★

0% stoppage rate vs 57%

Vargas

0.0

Alvarez

6.8

DurabilityWeight: ★★

90% survival rate vs 79%

Vargas

9.9

Alvarez

8.7

Physical AttributesWeight: ★★

Height 178cm / 175cm, Reach ?cm / ?cm

Vargas

5.6

Alvarez

4.4

Age & PrimeWeight: ★★

37 years old vs 42 years old

Vargas

6.0

Alvarez

3.0

ExperienceWeight: ★★

41 bouts vs 38 bouts

Vargas

10.0

Alvarez

9.4

Ask about this fight

AI · fact-anchored

Grounded in both fighters' records, measurements and recent results. We don't fabricate — if we don't have the data, we'll say so.

Disclaimer: This prediction is generated algorithmically based on publicly available statistics and should not be used as gambling advice. Fight outcomes depend on many factors that statistics alone cannot capture, including game plans, training camps, and in-ring adjustments. Always gamble responsibly.