Israel Adesanya vs Justin Gaethje

Stats-based fight prediction · Factor analysis · Win probability

PREDICTIONConfidence: MEDIUM

🇳🇿

Israel Adesanya

24-6-0

Justin Gaethje

27-5-0

46%10% Draw44%

Adesanya

Gaethje

Predicted outcome: KO/TKO

Our stats-based model gives Israel Adesanya a 46% edge over Justin Gaethje in this matchup. The prediction is driven by physical attributes as the dominant factor. The most likely outcome is a KO/TKO in what should be a competitive fight.

Factor Analysis

Win RateWeight: ★★★

Israel Adesanya wins 80% vs Justin Gaethje at 84%

Adesanya

9.6

Gaethje

10.0

Finishing PowerWeight: ★★★

67% stoppage rate vs 74%

Adesanya

8.0

Gaethje

8.9

Physical AttributesWeight: ★★

Height 193cm / 180cm, Reach ?cm / ?cm

Adesanya

7.0

Gaethje

3.0

DurabilityWeight: ★★

80% survival rate vs 84%

Adesanya

8.8

Gaethje

9.3

Age & PrimeWeight: ★★

37 years old vs 38 years old

Adesanya

6.1

Gaethje

5.4

ExperienceWeight: ★★

30 bouts vs 32 bouts

Adesanya

9.5

Gaethje

10.0

Ask about this fight

AI · fact-anchored

Grounded in both fighters' records, measurements and recent results. We don't fabricate — if we don't have the data, we'll say so.

Disclaimer: This prediction is generated algorithmically based on publicly available statistics and should not be used as gambling advice. Fight outcomes depend on many factors that statistics alone cannot capture, including game plans, training camps, and in-ring adjustments. Always gamble responsibly.