BREAKINGIslam Makhachev vs Justin Gaethje — stats-based predictionBREAKINGIslam Makhachev vs Justin Gaethje — stats-based prediction

Islam Makhachev vs Justin Gaethje

Stats-based fight prediction · Factor analysis · Win probability

PREDICTIONConfidence: MEDIUM
🇷🇺

Islam Makhachev

28-1-0
VS

Justin Gaethje

27-5-0
42%10% Draw48%
Makhachev
Gaethje
Predicted outcome: KO/TKO

Our stats-based model gives Justin Gaethje a 48% edge over Islam Makhachev in this matchup. The prediction is driven by finishing power as the dominant factor. The most likely outcome is a KO/TKO in what should be a competitive fight.

Factor Analysis

Win RateWeight: ★★★

Islam Makhachev wins 97% vs Justin Gaethje at 84%

Makhachev
10.0
Gaethje
10.0
Finishing PowerWeight: ★★★

18% stoppage rate vs 74%

Makhachev
2.1
Gaethje
8.9
Physical AttributesWeight: ★★

Height 178cm / 180cm, Reach ?cm / ?cm

Makhachev
4.6
Gaethje
5.4
DurabilityWeight: ★★

97% survival rate vs 84%

Makhachev
10.0
Gaethje
9.3
Age & PrimeWeight: ★★

34 years old vs 37 years old

Makhachev
8.5
Gaethje
5.6
ExperienceWeight: ★★

29 bouts vs 32 bouts

Makhachev
9.3
Gaethje
10.0
Disclaimer: This prediction is generated algorithmically based on publicly available statistics and should not be used as gambling advice. Fight outcomes depend on many factors that statistics alone cannot capture, including game plans, training camps, and in-ring adjustments. Always gamble responsibly.