Islam Makhachev vs Dustin Poirier

Stats-based fight prediction · Factor analysis · Win probability

PREDICTIONConfidence: MEDIUM

🇷🇺

Islam Makhachev

28-1-0

Dustin Poirier

30-10-0

45%10% Draw45%

Makhachev

Poirier

Predicted outcome: TKO / Late Stoppage

Our stats-based model gives Dustin Poirier a 45% edge over Islam Makhachev in this matchup. The prediction is driven by finishing power as the dominant factor. The most likely outcome is a TKO / Late Stoppage in what should be a competitive fight.

Factor Analysis

Win RateWeight: ★★★

Islam Makhachev wins 97% vs Dustin Poirier at 75%

Makhachev

10.0

Poirier

9.0

Finishing PowerWeight: ★★★

18% stoppage rate vs 50%

Makhachev

2.1

Poirier

6.0

DurabilityWeight: ★★

97% survival rate vs 75%

Makhachev

10.0

Poirier

8.3

Physical AttributesWeight: ★★

Height 178cm / 175cm, Reach ?cm / ?cm

Makhachev

5.6

Poirier

4.4

Age & PrimeWeight: ★★

35 years old vs 37 years old

Makhachev

8.5

Poirier

5.7

ExperienceWeight: ★★

29 bouts vs 40 bouts

Makhachev

7.8

Poirier

10.0

Ask about this fight

AI · fact-anchored

Grounded in both fighters' records, measurements and recent results. We don't fabricate — if we don't have the data, we'll say so.

Disclaimer: This prediction is generated algorithmically based on publicly available statistics and should not be used as gambling advice. Fight outcomes depend on many factors that statistics alone cannot capture, including game plans, training camps, and in-ring adjustments. Always gamble responsibly.