Ilia Topuria vs Khamzat Chimaev — stats-based predictionIlia Topuria vs Khamzat Chimaev — stats-based prediction

Ilia Topuria vs Khamzat Chimaev

Stats-based fight prediction · Factor analysis · Win probability

PREDICTIONConfidence: HIGH

Ilia Topuria

17-0-0
VS

Khamzat Chimaev

15-0-0
42%10% Draw48%
Topuria
Chimaev
Predicted outcome: Decision

Our stats-based model gives Khamzat Chimaev a 48% edge over Ilia Topuria in this matchup. The prediction is driven by physical attributes as the dominant factor. The most likely outcome is a Decision in what should be a competitive fight.

Factor Analysis

Win RateWeight: ★★★

Ilia Topuria wins 100% vs Khamzat Chimaev at 100%

Topuria
10.0
Chimaev
10.0
Finishing PowerWeight: ★★★

41% stoppage rate vs 40%

Topuria
4.9
Chimaev
4.8
Physical AttributesWeight: ★★

Height 170cm / 188cm, Reach 175cm / ?cm

Topuria
1.4
Chimaev
8.6
DurabilityWeight: ★★

100% survival rate vs 100%

Topuria
10.0
Chimaev
10.0
ExperienceWeight: ★★

17 bouts vs 15 bouts

Topuria
10.0
Chimaev
9.1
Age & PrimeWeight: ★★

29 years old vs 32 years old

Topuria
8.0
Chimaev
8.0

Ask about this fight

AI · fact-anchored

Grounded in both fighters' records, measurements and recent results. We don't fabricate — if we don't have the data, we'll say so.

Disclaimer: This prediction is generated algorithmically based on publicly available statistics and should not be used as gambling advice. Fight outcomes depend on many factors that statistics alone cannot capture, including game plans, training camps, and in-ring adjustments. Always gamble responsibly.