Ilia Topuria vs Justin Gaethje

Stats-based fight prediction · Factor analysis · Win probability

PREDICTIONConfidence: HIGH

Ilia Topuria

17-0-0

Justin Gaethje

27-5-0

41%10% Draw49%

Topuria

Gaethje

Predicted outcome: KO/TKO

Our stats-based model gives Justin Gaethje a 49% edge over Ilia Topuria in this matchup. The prediction is driven by finishing power as the dominant factor. The most likely outcome is a KO/TKO in what should be a competitive fight.

Factor Analysis

Win RateWeight: ★★★

Ilia Topuria wins 100% vs Justin Gaethje at 84%

Topuria

10.0

Gaethje

10.0

Finishing PowerWeight: ★★★

41% stoppage rate vs 74%

Topuria

4.9

Gaethje

8.9

Physical AttributesWeight: ★★

Height 170cm / 180cm, Reach 175cm / ?cm

Topuria

3.0

Gaethje

7.0

DurabilityWeight: ★★

100% survival rate vs 84%

Topuria

10.0

Gaethje

9.3

ExperienceWeight: ★★

17 bouts vs 32 bouts

Topuria

6.3

Gaethje

10.0

Age & PrimeWeight: ★★

29 years old vs 38 years old

Topuria

8.0

Gaethje

5.5

Ask about this fight

AI · fact-anchored

Grounded in both fighters' records, measurements and recent results. We don't fabricate — if we don't have the data, we'll say so.

Disclaimer: This prediction is generated algorithmically based on publicly available statistics and should not be used as gambling advice. Fight outcomes depend on many factors that statistics alone cannot capture, including game plans, training camps, and in-ring adjustments. Always gamble responsibly.