Ilia Topuria vs Conor McGregor — stats-based predictionIlia Topuria vs Conor McGregor — stats-based prediction

Ilia Topuria vs Conor McGregor

Stats-based fight prediction · Factor analysis · Win probability

PREDICTIONConfidence: HIGH

Ilia Topuria

17-0-0
VS
🇮🇪

Conor McGregor

22-6-0
42%10% Draw48%
Topuria
McGregor
Predicted outcome: KO/TKO

Our stats-based model gives Conor McGregor a 48% edge over Ilia Topuria in this matchup. The prediction is driven by finishing power as the dominant factor. The most likely outcome is a KO/TKO in what should be a competitive fight.

Factor Analysis

Win RateWeight: ★★★

Ilia Topuria wins 100% vs Conor McGregor at 79%

Topuria
10.0
McGregor
9.4
Finishing PowerWeight: ★★★

41% stoppage rate vs 86%

Topuria
4.9
McGregor
10.0
Physical AttributesWeight: ★★

Height 170cm / 174cm, Reach 175cm / ?cm

Topuria
4.2
McGregor
5.8
DurabilityWeight: ★★

100% survival rate vs 79%

Topuria
10.0
McGregor
8.6
ExperienceWeight: ★★

17 bouts vs 28 bouts

Topuria
6.9
McGregor
10.0
Age & PrimeWeight: ★★

29 years old vs 38 years old

Topuria
8.0
McGregor
5.2

Ask about this fight

AI · fact-anchored

Grounded in both fighters' records, measurements and recent results. We don't fabricate — if we don't have the data, we'll say so.

Disclaimer: This prediction is generated algorithmically based on publicly available statistics and should not be used as gambling advice. Fight outcomes depend on many factors that statistics alone cannot capture, including game plans, training camps, and in-ring adjustments. Always gamble responsibly.