Georges St-Pierre vs Justin Gaethje

Stats-based fight prediction · Factor analysis · Win probability

PREDICTIONConfidence: MEDIUM

🇨🇦

Georges St-Pierre

26-2-0

Justin Gaethje

27-5-0

41%10% Draw49%

St-Pierre

Gaethje

Predicted outcome: KO/TKO

Our stats-based model gives Justin Gaethje a 49% edge over Georges St-Pierre in this matchup. The prediction is driven by finishing power as the dominant factor. The most likely outcome is a KO/TKO in what should be a competitive fight.

Factor Analysis

Win RateWeight: ★★★

Georges St-Pierre wins 93% vs Justin Gaethje at 84%

St-Pierre

10.0

Gaethje

10.0

Finishing PowerWeight: ★★★

31% stoppage rate vs 74%

St-Pierre

3.7

Gaethje

8.9

Physical AttributesWeight: ★★

Height 178cm / 180cm, Reach ?cm / ?cm

St-Pierre

4.6

Gaethje

5.4

DurabilityWeight: ★★

93% survival rate vs 84%

St-Pierre

10.0

Gaethje

9.3

Age & PrimeWeight: ★★

45 years old vs 38 years old

St-Pierre

3.0

Gaethje

5.5

ExperienceWeight: ★★

28 bouts vs 32 bouts

St-Pierre

9.0

Gaethje

10.0

Ask about this fight

AI · fact-anchored

Grounded in both fighters' records, measurements and recent results. We don't fabricate — if we don't have the data, we'll say so.

Disclaimer: This prediction is generated algorithmically based on publicly available statistics and should not be used as gambling advice. Fight outcomes depend on many factors that statistics alone cannot capture, including game plans, training camps, and in-ring adjustments. Always gamble responsibly.