Conor McGregor vs Tom Aspinall — stats-based predictionConor McGregor vs Tom Aspinall — stats-based prediction

Conor McGregor vs Tom Aspinall

Stats-based fight prediction · Factor analysis · Win probability

PREDICTIONConfidence: MEDIUM
🇮🇪

Conor McGregor

22-6-0
VS
🇬🇧

Tom Aspinall

15-2-0
41%10% Draw49%
McGregor
Aspinall
Predicted outcome: KO/TKO

Our stats-based model gives Tom Aspinall a 49% edge over Conor McGregor in this matchup. The prediction is driven by physical attributes as the dominant factor. The most likely outcome is a KO/TKO in what should be a competitive fight.

Factor Analysis

Win RateWeight: ★★★

Conor McGregor wins 79% vs Tom Aspinall at 88%

McGregor
9.4
Aspinall
10.0
Finishing PowerWeight: ★★★

86% stoppage rate vs 80%

McGregor
10.0
Aspinall
9.6
Physical AttributesWeight: ★★

Height 174cm / 196cm, Reach ?cm / ?cm

McGregor
1.0
Aspinall
9.4
DurabilityWeight: ★★

79% survival rate vs 88%

McGregor
8.6
Aspinall
9.7
Age & PrimeWeight: ★★

38 years old vs 33 years old

McGregor
5.2
Aspinall
9.9
ExperienceWeight: ★★

28 bouts vs 17 bouts

McGregor
10.0
Aspinall
6.9

Ask about this fight

AI · fact-anchored

Grounded in both fighters' records, measurements and recent results. We don't fabricate — if we don't have the data, we'll say so.

Disclaimer: This prediction is generated algorithmically based on publicly available statistics and should not be used as gambling advice. Fight outcomes depend on many factors that statistics alone cannot capture, including game plans, training camps, and in-ring adjustments. Always gamble responsibly.