Conor McGregor vs Chael Sonnen

Stats-based fight prediction · Factor analysis · Win probability

PREDICTIONConfidence: MEDIUM

🇮🇪

Conor McGregor

22-6-0

Chael Sonnen

31-17-1

49%10% Draw41%

McGregor

Sonnen

Predicted outcome: KO/TKO

Our stats-based model gives Conor McGregor a 49% edge over Chael Sonnen in this matchup. The prediction is driven by finishing power as the dominant factor. The most likely outcome is a KO/TKO in what should be a competitive fight.

Factor Analysis

Win RateWeight: ★★★

Conor McGregor wins 79% vs Chael Sonnen at 63%

McGregor

9.4

Sonnen

7.6

Finishing PowerWeight: ★★★

86% stoppage rate vs 26%

McGregor

10.0

Sonnen

3.1

Physical AttributesWeight: ★★

Height 174cm / 185cm, Reach ?cm / ?cm

McGregor

2.8

Sonnen

7.2

DurabilityWeight: ★★

79% survival rate vs 65%

McGregor

8.6

Sonnen

7.2

ExperienceWeight: ★★

28 bouts vs 49 bouts

McGregor

6.6

Sonnen

10.0

Age & PrimeWeight: ★★

38 years old vs 49 years old

McGregor

5.2

Sonnen

3.0

Disclaimer: This prediction is generated algorithmically based on publicly available statistics and should not be used as gambling advice. Fight outcomes depend on many factors that statistics alone cannot capture, including game plans, training camps, and in-ring adjustments. Always gamble responsibly.