BREAKINGColby Covington vs Tony Ferguson — stats-based predictionBREAKINGColby Covington vs Tony Ferguson — stats-based prediction

Colby Covington vs Tony Ferguson

Stats-based fight prediction · Factor analysis · Win probability

PREDICTIONConfidence: MEDIUM

Colby Covington

17-5-0
VS

Tony Ferguson

26-11-0
42%10% Draw48%
Covington
Ferguson
Predicted outcome: TKO / Late Stoppage

Our stats-based model gives Tony Ferguson a 48% edge over Colby Covington in this matchup. The prediction is driven by finishing power as the dominant factor. The most likely outcome is a TKO / Late Stoppage in what should be a competitive fight.

Factor Analysis

Win RateWeight: ★★★

Colby Covington wins 77% vs Tony Ferguson at 70%

Covington
9.3
Ferguson
8.4
Finishing PowerWeight: ★★★

24% stoppage rate vs 50%

Covington
2.8
Ferguson
6.0
Physical AttributesWeight: ★★

Height 180cm / 183cm, Reach ?cm / ?cm

Covington
4.4
Ferguson
5.6
DurabilityWeight: ★★

77% survival rate vs 70%

Covington
8.5
Ferguson
7.7
ExperienceWeight: ★★

22 bouts vs 37 bouts

Covington
6.8
Ferguson
10.0
Age & PrimeWeight: ★★

38 years old vs 42 years old

Covington
4.8
Ferguson
3.0
Disclaimer: This prediction is generated algorithmically based on publicly available statistics and should not be used as gambling advice. Fight outcomes depend on many factors that statistics alone cannot capture, including game plans, training camps, and in-ring adjustments. Always gamble responsibly.