BREAKINGColby Covington vs Paddy Pimblett — stats-based predictionBREAKINGColby Covington vs Paddy Pimblett — stats-based prediction

Colby Covington vs Paddy Pimblett

Stats-based fight prediction · Factor analysis · Win probability

PREDICTIONConfidence: MEDIUM

Colby Covington

17-5-0
VS
🇬🇧

Paddy Pimblett

23-4-0
42%10% Draw48%
Covington
Pimblett
Predicted outcome: Decision

Our stats-based model gives Paddy Pimblett a 48% edge over Colby Covington in this matchup. The prediction is driven by age & prime as the dominant factor. The most likely outcome is a Decision in what should be a competitive fight.

Factor Analysis

Win RateWeight: ★★★

Colby Covington wins 77% vs Paddy Pimblett at 85%

Covington
9.3
Pimblett
10.0
Finishing PowerWeight: ★★★

24% stoppage rate vs 30%

Covington
2.8
Pimblett
3.7
DurabilityWeight: ★★

77% survival rate vs 85%

Covington
8.5
Pimblett
9.4
Physical AttributesWeight: ★★

Height 180cm / 178cm, Reach ?cm / ?cm

Covington
5.4
Pimblett
4.6
Age & PrimeWeight: ★★

38 years old vs 31 years old

Covington
4.8
Pimblett
8.0
ExperienceWeight: ★★

22 bouts vs 27 bouts

Covington
8.5
Pimblett
10.0
Disclaimer: This prediction is generated algorithmically based on publicly available statistics and should not be used as gambling advice. Fight outcomes depend on many factors that statistics alone cannot capture, including game plans, training camps, and in-ring adjustments. Always gamble responsibly.