BREAKINGColby Covington vs Kamaru Usman — stats-based predictionBREAKINGColby Covington vs Kamaru Usman — stats-based prediction

Colby Covington vs Kamaru Usman

Stats-based fight prediction · Factor analysis · Win probability

PREDICTIONConfidence: MEDIUM

Colby Covington

17-5-0
VS

Kamaru Usman

21-4-0
42%10% Draw48%
Covington
Usman
Predicted outcome: TKO / Late Stoppage

Our stats-based model gives Kamaru Usman a 48% edge over Colby Covington in this matchup. The prediction is driven by finishing power as the dominant factor. The most likely outcome is a TKO / Late Stoppage in what should be a competitive fight.

Factor Analysis

Win RateWeight: ★★★

Colby Covington wins 77% vs Kamaru Usman at 84%

Covington
9.3
Usman
10.0
Finishing PowerWeight: ★★★

24% stoppage rate vs 43%

Covington
2.8
Usman
5.1
Physical AttributesWeight: ★★

Height 180cm / 183cm, Reach ?cm / ?cm

Covington
4.4
Usman
5.6
DurabilityWeight: ★★

77% survival rate vs 84%

Covington
8.5
Usman
9.2
ExperienceWeight: ★★

22 bouts vs 25 bouts

Covington
9.0
Usman
10.0
Age & PrimeWeight: ★★

38 years old vs 39 years old

Covington
4.8
Usman
4.1
Disclaimer: This prediction is generated algorithmically based on publicly available statistics and should not be used as gambling advice. Fight outcomes depend on many factors that statistics alone cannot capture, including game plans, training camps, and in-ring adjustments. Always gamble responsibly.